Earnings Snap – Q3’23

Employment

• Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, ticked lower to 217,000 last week while the four-week moving average for jobless claims rose to 212,250; continuing claims, which reflect the number of people seeking ongoing unemployment benefits, rose for the seventh straight week to 1.83M, up 22,000 from the week before. (Source: Labor Department)

Inventories

• U.S. wholesale inventories climbed unexpectedly 0.2% in September from the month prior, the first rise since February and above consensus estimates for a flat performance. Leading the rise were durable goods, with machinery, automotive goods, and lumber all increasing. Still, inventories remain 1.2% lower than last year at this time. (Source: Commerce Department)

UAW Strike

• The United Auto Workers (UAW) union on Monday said members at the General Dynamics plants at Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted to ratify a new tentative agreement. The vote was ratified with 74% members in favor of the new four-year deal, which provides a 14% wage hike, protection against inflation, reduces the time it takes to get to top pay and “beats back the company’s proposed healthcare concessions” according to a union representative. (Source: Reuters)

Consumer Health

• Credit card balances spiked to a record $1.08 trillion in Q3, increasing $154 billion YoY and notching the largest increase since 1999. Credit card delinquency rates also rose across the board, but especially among borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39 who are burdened by high levels of student loan debt. (Source: New York Fed)

Europe

• The European Union recommended Wednesday that the bloc begins membership talks with Ukraine soon, boosting President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has made EU accession a central goal. Unanimous approval is needed from all 27 EU countries to open negotiations and set a date to begin talks. Diplomats say some EU leaders still need convincing. (Source: WSJ)

China

• China’s customs agency said exports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 6.4% in October from a year ago, representing the sixth straight month of declines. Contributing to the decline were double-digit decreases to Southeast Asia and the European Union. That said, imports saw a slight rise of 3.3% YoY. (Source: Chinese General Administration of Customs)