While there is hope for a greater sense of clarity once past the U.S. election (less than two weeks away!), shifting policy implications remain a wild card, and geopolitical tensions have shown no signs of abating. In addition, the impact of Fed rate cuts will take time to be felt, while recent hurricanes in the Southeast and evolving labor actions are adding to near-term headwinds in some sectors.
Overall U.S. Bank commentary is more upbeat than expected on a resilient economy, but executives remain guarded in their comments around the road ahead given ongoing risks with heightened geopolitical turmoil and an uncertain U.S. political landscape as we march toward the November U.S. presidential election.
The Materials sector, a barometer for the broader economy, continues to reflect the complexities and challenges of the current economic landscape. While last quarter indicated a move towards slow but steady stabilization with hopes of a back-half recovery, commentary in Q2 earnings suggests many of the persistent challenges observed over the past few quarters have remained just that — persistent.
Peak earnings season shaped out to be a dynamic one, and today’s jobs data has added to investor concerns we identified in our most recent Q2’24 Inside The Buy-Side® Earnings Primer® publication. As a result, the S&P 500 saw its worst decline today since 2022, and the Fed-funds futures now sees a 71.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September.
This quarter, companies across sectors are feeling very similar trends: slowing top lines; customer decisions being pushed out; an anemic consumer; labor issues, including wage inflation, unionization, and inefficiency; and continued or emerging supply chain issues.
While overall U.S. Bank performances were largely in the black, executives refrained from declaring a definitive turnaround. Many injected a sense of caution in their macroeconomic commentaries, commensurate with our observations from our prior Commencing the Quarter Thought Leadership report. Still, increased confidence amid continued capital market strength and percolating M&A deal activity is notable.
As we look at the broader landscape and try to read the tea leaves on behalf of our clients this quarter, the Materials sector – a barometer for the economy – is showing signs of slow, but steady stabilization. Indeed, Materials, one of the “canary in the coal mine” sectors, has now moved to a “variable degree” of optimism, a better place than we were last quarter and the boom-and-bust nature that played out from the Covid-induced cycle. However, with many companies exposed to the consumer, progression will most likely be choppy and bounce along versus linear.
There is a noticeable change in executive tone this quarter — one of more caution — as much of the sector grapples with fluctuating and bifurcating consumer buying habits, with pronounced pullbacks this quarter in discretionary spending evident across several industries, including dining and retail. Much hinges on the consistently strong employment environment, though we continue to see a bevy of layoffs as companies manage profitability in a slowing growth environment and as pricing power has slowed at the same time labor costs are climbing.
As we noted heading into earnings season, investor optimism, including that captured in our Industrial Sentiment Survey®, is seemingly outpacing corporate reality at this time, but executive commentary suggests increasing hope and optimism around normalization and back-half acceleration. Flagging headwinds are hampering straight-line momentum and the U.S. Presidential Election is more and more cited as curtail capex confidence, especially large, long-cycle projects. Year-over-year, the tone is improved.
While overall Bank positioning paints the picture of increasing optimism, there remains a continued dosage of caution, and many executives were careful to call an outright turnaround in conditions just yet. But, when we assess tone quarter-to-quarter, it continues to inflect more positively… another sign that 2024 is starting off strong.
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