Industrial Investors Brace for Disappointing 2H24 amid Anticipated Misses and Downward Guidance Revisions; Sights Turn to 2025 for Which Optimism is Building
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Q3'24 Inside The Buy-Side® Earnings Primer®
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Survey Finds Notable Sentiment Divergence Resulting in Bull-Bear Barbell; Outright Bearishness at Highest Level in 12 Months with More Downward Guidance Revisions Expected
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Closing the Quarter – Q3’23
With Q3 2023 earnings season in the books, we “Close the Quarter” with some notable themes:
Overall Performance
Stronger-than-expected S&P 500 Q3 EPS prints (~83% beat vs consensus) result in more than half of companies seeing estimate increases through the end of the year, while roughly one-third experience revenue expectation cuts despite 60% beating consensus.
Consensus Trends
- Revenue: 27% increase, 41% no change, 32% decrease
- EPS: 52% increase, 21% no change, 27% decrease
Guidance
Based on a universe of over 750 companies we track every quarter, more companies raised guidance versus maintained or lowered, with EPS seeing a slightly higher number of increases over revenue.
Guidance Shifts
- Revenue: 38% raised, 33% maintained, 29% lowered
- EPS: 42% raised, 27% maintained, 31% lowered
Capital Allocation
Sequential cash uses indicate renewed interest in buybacks and M&A, though both increases continue to be overshadowed by their negative YoY comparisons.
S&P 500 Sequential Uses of Cash
- +12.8% buybacks
- +12.0% M&A
- 1.9% capex
- +0.9% dry powder
- -0.9% debt paydown
- -3.6% dividends
Earnings
Stronger-than-expected Q3 EPS prints result in consensus raises through the end of the year, while roughly one-third cut revenue expectations.
Guidance
More companies across the broader U.S. universe are raising annual EPS guidance than they are revenue for 2023, though both metrics saw the majority of companies increasing. Still, roughly 30% decreased top- and/or bottom-line guides through Q3.
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